Does New Delhi need an arrant stratgen in Indo-Pacific ?
Introduction
In contemporary geopolitical schema, when we talk about Indo Pacific, we have an indistinct delineation of a region stretching from the East coast of Africa to the west coast of the USA. Indo pacific doesn't have a patent for geographical or political cartography. First time, the term 'Indo Pacific' was used by the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Indian soil in 2007. When we plunge in world affairs we make a premise that Indo Pacific somehow is a merger of both, Political & Geographical spaces yet uncertain in many aspects, as most states involved in the region have their own contrasting definition of the region, based on their foreign policies, economical & military temptations in the region. In geopolitics maritime dominance plays a crucial role to have a strong hold on other major actors and unambiguously to have a lead when it comes to trade as it passes muster as one of the most potent trade routes on the globe.
States having most interests in the Indo pacific namely USA, China, India, Japan & Australia. With China's maritime advances in the region for vital trading routes & Beijing's hegemonic goals in the Indian ocean region blended with their political motives in South Asia, Indo pacific is the defining region economically, militarily & politically for every major state in international politics.
There are an abundance of questions & ambiguity on how the US counter China for its role as a leader in the region, the need for a peaceful Indo pacific for India, Australia & Japan. New Delhi have to make it's motive for Indo Pacific unambiguous. As it have most potent trading routes & energy sources every states have a lot on stakes.
The USA China Relevance
As the great power feud is raging between Usa and China , the Indo-Pacific is ostensibly the scene of a geopolitical showdown between them. The USA perceives China as a strategic competitor and a hooligan who is obsessed about crouching any rule & ethics to set its foot strong in indo pacific.This makes Beijing the key security threat for the USA and its allies.
Particularly after Washington is willing to share highly sensitive defense technology with Australia in the name of securing a "free and open" Indo-Pacific, all eyes are on the region and China's response. This new partnership creates waves all around the globe and a subject that perturb just not China but also derange some of the European allies of USA, specifically France.The AUKUS countries have hailed the pact as an "endeavor" to "sustain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Albeit France have legit reasons for being upset with Australia & USA for this submarine deal & the media narratives certainly state that both of them stabbed France in back regardless of being allies ,the emerging picture in Indo-Pacific clearly shows that AIP submarines would have been a half-measure in containing a belligerent China under all powerful President Xi Jinping.
Given the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific and South China Sea in particular, the Australian choice for an SSN is definitely a better option in tackling a rapidly growing PLA Navy and Chinese intermediate range ballistic missile arsenal. If the affairs persist as they are presently, India also has no choice but to go for long-range nuclear-powered submarines and delivery platforms as it is only a matter of time when the Chinese carrier force will be patrolling the Indian Ocean. With two nuclear submarines already operational and third one a work in progress, India also is building a leverage in case PLA decides strong arm tactics on the 3,488-km Line of Actual Control (LAC), like it did in May 2020.
The one amass which becomes hiccups for China assertion in Indo pacific & perhaps works for US interests is Quad previously exaggerated as Pacific NATO by Chinese media.Albeit, the Quad’s diplomacy has waxed and waned. It is a loose grouping rather than a formal alliance.China’s growing willingness to challenge the regional status quo worries all the members, and Beijing’s challenging of democratic values over the past year has deepened Quad partners’ concerns as well. China’s relations with each of the Quad members have become more tense after this grouping. As, few policymakers in the Quad countries see an advantage in trying to contain Chinese influence militarily. Instead, the Quad leaders have emphasized cooperation across areas of shared interest to bolster confidence in the democracies’ ability to counter China’s assertion of regional influence which is a very subtle move and to a certain extent doesn't have any tangible outcomes. As long as tensions with China remain, the Quad’s agenda is likely to expand as the democracies of the Indo-Pacific seek to balance China’s growing power.
India's Relevance in Indo Pacific
India’s concerted actions in the Indo-Pacific region will determine its spot in world politics. The Indo-Pacific, is a paddock, which can be drawn on to balance, dilute and absorb Chinese assertion, it is both a region and an idea, sanguine for Indian foreign policies — a metaphor for collective action, self-help combined with mutual help, it is a rostrum on which India can showcase its power, strategic imagination, and a world view. It is innately a multipolar region because it is too large for hegemony (surely Beijing have divergent views on that). This calls for partnerships among nations in order to preserve order and India can lead a way to form such alliances. India’s Indo-Pacific primacies embrace its closest neighbors (all South Asian countries), followed by its outer neighborhood (Gulf states in the west and Southeast Asian and ASEAN countries in the east).
The vast Indo-Pacific region comprises at least 38 countries, shares 44 percent of the world surface area, is home to more than 64 percent of the world’s population, and accounts for 62 percent of the global GDP with more than 50 percent of global trade wandering through its waters making its one of the most prominent region on globe and making India one of the key players because of its geographical location. New Delhi segmented India’s Indo-Pacific concept as the SAGAR doctrine — ‘Security and Growth for All in the Region’, an ambition that is tangible only if New Delhi policies are unambiguous about their plans in the Indo Pacific in lieu than just wishing for a free Navigation for trade & military. At the East Asia Summit in Bangkok, India announced the Indo-Pacific Oceans’ Initiative (IPOI) to prop up the weaving of a rules-based regional architecture centered on seven points — maritime security; maritime ecology; maritime resources; capacity building and resource sharing; disaster risk reduction and management; science, technology and academic cooperation; trade, connectivity and maritime transport. But ironically it doesn't mold appaulsing outcomes.
Earlier, the neighborhood was considered to be almost like an American field. Although, there exists a panic that the region will become a Chinese battleground now and New Delhi is going to play a major role in stopping that from happening. Some of the traditional allies of the USA are looking towards India in order to counterbalance the withdrawal policy of the US. At the same time the US is also searching for other countries to share some responsibilities. ASEAN countries contemplate Indian policies in the Indo- pacific as an “outlook” with a strong departure from Beijing's containment logic. Albeit, ASEAN countries longing to be in such a locus which is inclusive and equidistant from the US and China.
In the political spectrum there is rhetoric describing the Indo Pacific as an arc of prosperity where everyone can work together. While political focus is centered on such opportunities, it often detracts from the real issues such as countering the Chinese assertion. So,India must frame it's policies for a multipolar world order and a resolution of like-minded countries to manage countries who may challenge a multipolar world. However, a large portion of the international community is against such a resolution which resembles a cold war mentality (such as NATO and Warsaw pact).
Challenges in front of India
China’s growing presence in the IOR can be obviously seen by certain events like a P-18 spy plane from the Indian navy spotted the Chinese amphibian warship xian-32 in September 2019, and on August 2020, just after the Galwan valley conflict, the Chinese Yuan Wang research vehicle was spotted. Chinese influence on the Indian Ocean Region extends far beyond these activities. China's navy has been beefing up its strength in the Indian Ocean region as it spies on Indian naval bases, notably in Andaman and Nicobar. Initially, trade was the sole concern for India due to Beijing influence was limited to the South China Sea. However, the entry of the Chinese into the Indian Ocean region now poses a millenarian menace.
In the past, India was the only dominant player on the IOR, and the Indo Pacific was not a priority for the country. Howbeit, after recognizing China's burgeoning hegemony, India's foreign policy on the Indo Pacific has changed, and it is now collaborating with various countries to ensure maritime security. Nevertheless, in order to compete with Chinese naval forces, the Indian navy will need to undergo significant changes. Even though the Indian navy received many upgrades in 2020-21, from the induction of two Scorpene submarines, to the commissioning of the Bravo destroyer Vishakhapatnam and the beginning of sea trials of India's second aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant. The navy still receives only 15% of the total defense budget, with the majority of the money going to previous repayments.
Military and diplomatic power are significant factors in achieving geopolitical leverage, but money power is the most crucial aspect of them. China is proving to be a superior alternative for India in the area, primarily in India's neighboring nations and small islands in the Indian Ocean, where India once had enormous geopolitical clout. China has managed to gain major soft power in these countries from developing ports in various nations under the ambitious BRI, to providing cheap loans for infrastructure developments, where New Delhi is struggling to compete with dragon's might to provide economic security and better opportunities for the region.
Similarly, when New Delhi's ties with all of its neighbors were at an all-time low in 2018, the government decided to pursue an ambitious Act East policy. However, despite maritime issues with China, ASEAN nations are economically intertwined with it, and India has struggled to compete with the Chinese market, as seen by India's recent withdrawal from the Regional Economic Cooperation Program (RECP). Following its withdrawal from RECP, India has reverted to a Neighbor First strategy. Many nations are also turning to China for long-term and consistent benefits due to a lack of clarity in Indian foreign policy and multiple geopolitical blunders.
India's way forward
Despite the ongoing epidemic, India's foreign minister Mr. S. Jaishankar traveled to numerous nations on a regular basis, indicating that India is working to address all of the country's mounting concerns.
In IOR, we still have a strategic advantage, thanks to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. From strategic autonomy over the Malaka Straight to monitoring Chinese vessels to utilizing it as a logistic exchange memorandum of understanding with other partners to India's entry into the South China Sea, A&N may serve a multifaceted role for India's interests.
The idea of exploiting the island to get access to the South China Sea is becoming increasingly important, as India continues to be hesitant to declare its intentions in the south china sea, while China is interacting with every country in the IOR and defying all international norms and rules. By interacting with the Quad and several trilaterals, India can ensure maritime security and freedom of passage, and the Quad states and various trilaterals may also aid India in getting access to the South China Sea but India must be cautious about these groups so that other countries do not get the perception that India is attempting to challenge China by forming these alliances, and other nations must choose a side. In both the Indian Ocean region and the South China Sea, India should emerge as an alternative to China rather than a counterweight.
But, in order for all of this to happen, India needs a stronger bureaucracy and economy, both of which appear to be in trouble. India's bureaucracy moves at such a glacial pace that Beijing is already making moves while India is still studying the issue. New Delhi will benefit from the robust economy by being able to provide aid and lines of credit to other countries on par with Beijing's economic participation in the IOR. Only by being powerful internally can a country demonstrate its influence to others.
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